[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W EQ18W 4S30W 1S40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5S E OF 8W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-2S BETWEEN
10W-15W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-9S BETWEEN
23W-30W...AND FROM 5N-2S BETWEEN 40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
15-25 KT SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W...AND OVER THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE ENTIRE GULF.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD ARE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF GULF.
EXPECT...SOME AIR MASS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER S FLORIDA
...AND S MEXICO S OF 20N...IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH HIGHEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
COSTA RICA...PANAMA...N COLOMBIA...AND VENEZUELA S OF 12N
BETWEEN 60W-84W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF HAITI
AND JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 72W-80W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL
FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S
AMERICA... AND THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 10N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W DUE
TO RIDGING FROM A DOMINATE 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 40N39W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE LOCATED N OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ONE EXTENDS FROM 25N63W TO 16N64W. THE
OTHER EXTENDS FROM 24N55W TO 18N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS N OF THE TROUGHS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 54W-63W.
ELSEWHERE...A 1013 MB LOW IS W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR
28N27W. A TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 23N26W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE E OF THE SYSTEM FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 20W-25W. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
30N26W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC SURFACE SYSTEMS. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE TROUGHS N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO DRIFT E AND GENERATE MORE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...AND FOR THE SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N27W TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
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