[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE APR 19 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 18W...TO
3S29W...TO THE EQUATOR AGAIN ALONG 35W...TO THE NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN
3W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 36W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
SURFACE WIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 28N77W...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF
WATERS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA TO THE NORTH
OF 15N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA TO 15N/16N...AND THEN IT CURVES EASTWARD. PARTS
OF ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGHS MAY REACH THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...ACCORDING TO THE MODEL FORECASTS. ONE TROUGH
IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 14N TO 22W...AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 27N61W 20N62W. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT MAY ACCOMPANY
THESE TROUGHS STILL IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AT THIS TIME.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT
COVER THE WATERS AND LAND AREAS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 16N
BETWEEN 63W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 80W AND
84W. SOME OF THE CLOUDS THAT ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N70W TO ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N71W TO 31N74W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
THESE FEATURES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
FROM 17N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
55W/56W FROM 14N TO 22W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N61W
20N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 17N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N25W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N
BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 40W. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 28N27W. ONE TROUGH REPLACES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRUCTURE FROM SIX HOURS AGO. IT IS ALONG 28N23W 20N30W 19N44W.
A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1011 MB LOW CENTER TO 23N30W
AND 23N43W. LINES OF CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHS.
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE CLOUD LINES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT









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