[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181715
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W EQ20W 1S30W 3S40W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-2S E OF 4W...
AND FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 9W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 13W-23W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM EQ-5S BETWEEN 30W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
10-15 KT SE RETURN FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...SOME AIR MASS SHOWERS OVER S
FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH HIGHEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
PANAMA...N COLOMBIA...AND VENEZUELA S OF 12N BETWEEN 60W-80W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER S AMERICA... AND THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 12N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N70W TO
29N75W TO 27N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N
BETWEEN 70W-74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM 24N59W TO 20N57W TO 13N57W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE
TROUGH FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 52W-57W. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 37W-52W. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N31W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW
TO 2831N27W TO 26N30W TO 24N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45
NM OF THE FRONT. A 1002 MB LOW IS ALSO NEAR THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
AT 34N17W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S TOWARDS THE CANARY ISLANDS
ALONG 30N16W 27N19W. THE TROUGH IS VOID OF ANY PRECIPITATION. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
N OF 25N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC FRONT.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 25N
BETWEEN 20W-40W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC SURFACE SYSTEMS.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO
DISSIPATE...FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
GENERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND FOR THE LOW
AT 32N31W TO MOVE SE TO 26N24W WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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