[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181113
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON APR 18 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE IVORY COAST TO 3N10W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 15W...TO 1S26W...TO 4S37W OFF THE
COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 6W AND 9W OFF
THE COASTS OF THE IVORY COAST AND LIBERIA...AND FROM 2N TO
4N BETWEEN 10W AND 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 2N BETWEEN
24W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 70W...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...PASSING THROUGH 32N76W
TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 28N77W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 28N77W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W...INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N83W.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
30N TO 33N BETWEEN 68W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
23N TO 27N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AROUND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE THAT
IS NEAR 32N79W TOWARD THE COAST OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
A SURFACE TROUGH STILL IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 57W/58W
FROM 14N TO 26N. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT COVER THE WATERS FROM 15N TO HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...IN THE WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND
JAMAICA...FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 73W...FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 80W AND CENTRAL AMERICA...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 80W ALONG THE PANAMA COAST AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF NICARAGUA

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 57W FROM 21N BEYOND 32N.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 57W/58W FROM
14N TO 26N. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 33N
BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS NEAR 32N31W. IT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME.
ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 20W
AND 45W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N28W TO 27N36W AND 29N47W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 1000 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N19W. ANY PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF 32N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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