[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
6N11W SW ALONG 5N20W 1S30W 3S40W INT0 BRAZIL NEAR 3S48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150
NM S OF THE AXIS W OF 20W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA
BETWEEN 37W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS SCENARIO
IS SUPPORTING A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N83W. THIS
FEATURE EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE AREA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER...BECOMING SSE 10-20 ELSEWHERE S OF 26N W OF 85W. WINDS
ARE GUSTING UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SOUTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
GULF TONIGHT...THEN SHIFT E AS A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS
COAST MON AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BIG BEND AREA OF
FLORIDA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO EARLY TUE..THEN STALL AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE EXTREME SE GULF AS SE RETURN FLOW
SPREADS E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS LATE AFTERNOON. THIS AIRMASS ALOFT IS
KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIR OVER THE A GREAT PORTION OF THE
HIGH SEAS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN REGIONS OF THE BASIN. 15-20
KT TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE
STRONGEST TRADES ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
FLOW IS BANKING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ONTO THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA...SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTLINE. THIS FLOW IS ALSO ADVECTING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE BASIN E OF 67W. LAST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED
AREAS OF BROKEN CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE FAR SE BASIN S OF 16N E OF 67W. SHORT
RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE FAR SE BASIN DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NW ATLC
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT
FROM 32N50W TO 27N62W...BECOMING STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT TO
THE COAST OF GEORGIA ALONG 26N70W 29N75W 31N81W. SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT.
ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT. S OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED
FROM 24N58W TO 19N59W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-24N
BETWEEN 53W-59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W IS UNDER
SURFACE RIDGING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES. THIS HIGH
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NE ATLC TO 20N55W. LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWED A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST
COVERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC WITHIN 600 NM OF LINE FROM THE
AFRICAN COAST NEAR 18N16W TO 7N45W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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