[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN APR 10 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 6N20W 2N25W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 28W CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR INT0 SOUTH AMERICA.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 1N21W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 3N AND
FROM 6N TO THE ITCZ BETWEEN 11W-17W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 40W-45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND AND
WITHIN 120/150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN
48W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC
REGION WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS S MEXICO AND THE GULF TO
OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE
RIDGE COVERS THE GULF E OF 93W ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST E OF TALLAHASSEE AND A SECOND 1021 MB
HIGH IN THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF SE TO S SURFACE FLOW BANKING
LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHES OF FOG ACROSS THE NW GULF. THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS GULF THROUGH TONIGHT THEN SHIFT E AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
WILL REACH THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO NEAR VERACRUZ MEXICO
EARLY TUE THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE EXTREME SE
GULF AS SE RETURN FLOW SPREADS E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WED AND
THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS
THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE W ATLC
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT
DOMINATES ALL BUT THE SE CARIBBEAN WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
BEING DRAWN FROM CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
11N-15N E OF 65W TO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN FRESH EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN USHERING IN SOME
ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS DOTTING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. FRESH E TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH THROUGH MON AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. MODERATE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE THROUGH THU.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W TO 28N64W
BECOMING STATIONARY ALONG 28N71W THEN W OUT OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA NEAR SAVANNAH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC S AND E OF THE FRONT WITH A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE NE ATLC THROUGH 32N31W TO 24N52W AND A 1021
MB HIGH IS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE E TROPICAL
ATLC WITHIN 500/600 NM OF LINE FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
18N16W TO 7N45W INCLUDING THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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