[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N7W 3N12W 3N18W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 29W CONTINUING S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
1N-5N BETWEEN 3W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 29W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA
ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT EXCEPT W OF LINE FROM
SE LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N GULF COAST TO VERMILION BAY
LOUISIANA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FRESH SE TO S WINDS W OF 86W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN SHIFT E AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFF
TEXAS COAST LATE SUN NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO LATE MON THEN DISSIPATE
TUE NIGHT AND WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS N VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA
THEN NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA GIVING THE CARIBBEAN WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT. MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N WHILE
TROPICAL MOISTURE COVERS THE S CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN E FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
GENERATING PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING PUSHED W ON THE
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO BANKING LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF THE COAST OF
THE SW CARIBBEAN TO ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO
CENTRAL NICARAGUA. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL
MAINTAIN THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH SUN THEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MON
THROUGH WED ESPECIALLY OVER THE S CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
20N W OF 40W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N40W EXTENDING ALONG 28N45W TO 26N50W DISSIPATING
ALONG 25N54W TO 21N59W. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IS N OF THE REGION.
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF THE
FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1022 MB HIGH WSW OF BERMUDA
NEAR 31N70W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA W OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR
27N32W GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 28N WILL MOVE S TO 26N SAT AS WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NE WATERS LATE SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM BERMUDA ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN
THROUGH MON THEN RECEDE E AS SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W
ATLC AND STALL TUE AND WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net