[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 04N08W 02N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W
THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 10W-17W...AND FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 26W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY DRY AIR
AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR
30N71W ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE WEST-CENTRAL
GULF NEAR 24N94W. LOCATED MOSTLY ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO 20
KT MAINLY W OF 90W. WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WILL VEER SLIGHTLY ON
SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 05N40W OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA NEAR
09N66W THEN TO BEYOND GUATEMALA NEAR 15N91W. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE MAINLY N OF 13N. AT THE
SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO A STATIONARY RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE BASIN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND NE
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N61W TO
17N66W TO 19N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N...LIKELY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND
DIPS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO 24N BETWEEN 45W-65W. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MEAN TROUGH IN THE
VICINITY OF 50W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N41W THAT EXTENDS SW TO 25N57W THEN MEANDERS
W-SW TO 24N67W. WHILE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LACK IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90
NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W-NW OF
THE FRONT NEAR 30N71W THAT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 25N W OF 55W.
FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 27N34W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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