[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080617
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 08 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE TO 4N20W TO 3N42W INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 52W. SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 25W AND 28W...AND FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN
32W AND 34W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS
THE AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE ENTERS THE AREA...EXTENDING FROM
A 1025 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
31N63W...TO 30N76W TO 27N87W TO 21N97W ALONG THE MEXICO GULF
COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.
NO COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS STARTING AT 08/0000 UTC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SPANS THE ENTIRE AREA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE RELATED TO A SHEAR
AXIS FROM 24 HOURS AGO/REMNANTS OF AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM A FEW DAYS AGO THAT HAVE DRIFTED TOWARD THE WEST AND
WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM BARBADOS TO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...TOWARD PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT MOST PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHEAR AXIS COVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
ISLANDS/LAND AREAS FROM HAITI TO JAMAICA TO CUBA IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER COLOMBIA AND
CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN
73W AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO
27N58W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N46W TO 28N51W AND 25N57W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
25N57W TO 25N69W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. THESE CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE RELATED TO A SHEAR AXIS FROM
24 HOURS AGO THAT IS ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE 25N21W 17N50W
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. OTHER CLOUDS THAT ARE RELATED TO
THE PAST SHEAR AXIS COVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS
FROM BARBADOS TO PUERTO RICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT...MOVING AROUND
A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N63W. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 27N28W TO A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N36W...AND CONTINUING TO
11N44W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N16W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 25N21W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N21W TO 20N33W 18N40W AND 17N50W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net