[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 07 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 4N16W 3N32W 1N45W INTO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
5N-6N BETWEEN 16W-19W AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 21W-25W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 25W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO LOUISIANA ACCOMPANIED BY MOSTLY DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
SURFACE RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE N FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR CEDAR KEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 29N92W. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER W ATLC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH SE TO S
WINDS W OF 90W GENERATING PATCHES OF HAZE AND FOG ACROSS THE NW
GULF N OF 26N W OF 86W. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN.
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH NW GULF EARLY MON AND EXTEND FROM
FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER E VENEZUELA WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN JUST E OF THE ABC ISLANDS TO
CENTRAL CUBA. MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN
NW OF A LINE FROM E CUBA NEAR 20N77W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 16N89W AND THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N75W
ALONG THE E TIP OF JAMAICA TO 16N76W TO 14N76W PRODUCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS N OF 17N
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI AND JAMAICA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ABOVE. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC
IS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN E TO SE FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
BASIN WITH STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN TO ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THE
REMNANT MOISTURE OF A RECENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MAINTAINING
ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN THE TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
28N W OF 45W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR
32N48W EXTENDING SW TO 25N60W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 25N69W. THE
FRONT IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS THE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ALSO WEAKENS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE FRONT WITH A 1019 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N44W. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR MOSTLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA W AND E OF THE FRONT. A
DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED
NEAR 36N23W AND SUPPORTING A 998 MB LOW JUST THE W NEAR 36N25W
AND AN OCCLUDED FRONT WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N18W EXTENDING ALONG 25N21W TO 22N28W WHERE THE FRONT
DISSIPATES AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG 18N36W TO TO 17N47W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. REMNANT MOISTURE
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITHIN 90/120
NM OF LINE FROM 17N50W TO 14N59W AND FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
59W-64W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE CENTRAL ATLC
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRI NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS NW ATLC MON MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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