[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052336
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 05N10W 01N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W
THEN INTO NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 7W-16W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 20W-35W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 38W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 28N80W 22N90W 18N93W. A PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA FROM
25N80W TO 22N84W. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THE
SQUALL LINE.  A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG
THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 29N94W BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
TO THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OUT TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...REMNANTS OF THIS FRONT COULD BE
PRODUCING POSSIBLE SHOWERS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 9N81W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA
ALONG 10N84W 9N81W 10N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 75W-84W. A SQUALL LINE IS OVER
WESTERN CUBA PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS W OF 80W. 15-30 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-76W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 11N59W. BESIDES THE AREAS OF CONVECTION
MENTIONED ABOVE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BRINGING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT THE
SQUALL LINE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGES ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N78W TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS
FROM 30N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM OF THIS SQUALL LINE. A 1028 MB
SURFACE HIGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N53W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM 30N31W TO 24N42W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES W TO
22N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS MIGHT BE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT. A 1018 MB DISSIPATING HIGH IS FURTHER E
NEAR 28N25W. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ARE
SUPPORTING BOTH ATLANTIC FRONTAL SYSTEMS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR...BOTH COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS




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