[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTION OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 06N10W 02N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W
THEN INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 02S45W. A STRONG LINE OF LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SE OF THE ITCZ IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE IS
ANALYZED FROM 03N09W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 07W THEN TO 02S04W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N BETWEEN
05W-13W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 04N
BETWEEN 18W-33W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 02N BETWEEN 44W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GULF
THIS AFTERNOON AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND NEAR 30N83W TO 24N90W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO
NEAR 20N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE SW
GULF FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR 24N90W TO 19N93W. THE SURFACE
FRONT...ALONG WITH THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS GENERATING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS FOCUSED ALONG AND BEHIND AN
INTENSE SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTENDING FROM FLAGLER
BEACH SW TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION TO 26N87W. MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HOWEVER REMAINS WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND SE GULF WATERS. WEST OF THE FRONT...STRONG N-NE
WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT ARE OCCURRING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE NW GULF WATER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS WITH E-SE WINDS EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN SE RETURN FLOW
BECOMING DOMINATE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N59W PROVIDING
MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
STREAM OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
18N82W ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC TO 24N65W.
AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO A FAIRLY
STATIONARY RIDGE LOCATED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE ATLC RIDGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING MOSTLY OVER
THE NE CARIBBEAN...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
AND FAR EASTERN CUBA. ALSO...LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 12N W OF 78W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR
34N79W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE. A SQUALL LINE
PRECEDES THE FRONT AND IS LOCATED FROM 32N78W TO COCOA BEACH
FLORIDA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
BETWEEN THE SQUALL LINE AND THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SW NORTH
ATLC WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE MARCHING EASTWARD AND LOCATE N OF 20N BETWEEN
62W-74W BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT PROVIDING FOR STRONG N-NE WINDS WEST
OF THE FRONT TO 80W THROUGH TOMORROW. FARTHER EAST...AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 36W WITH AN AXIS THROUGH
32N38W TO A BASE NEAR 25N50W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N33W AND
EXTENDS SW TO 24N46W...THEN BECOMES A SHEAR LINE WESTWARD TO
22N63W. A RECENT 05/1336 UTC ASCAT PASS DEPICTED STRONGER NE
WINDS OF 20 KT WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN
46W-63W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N56W N OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR LINE AND
A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N28W EAST OF THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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