[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 290440
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1240 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 CONTINUES TO HEADS IN THE GENERAL
DIRECTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...MAINLAND MONROE...COASTAL PALM BEACH...COASTAL
BROWARD...COASTAL MIAMI DADE AND FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...INLAND PALM BEACH...METRO PALM BEACH...INLAND
BROWARD...METRO BROWARD...INLAND MIAMI DADE AND METRO MIAMI DADE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO OCEAN REEF, INCLUDING
BISCAYNE BAY. THE WARNING ALSO EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF
FLORIDA BAY FROM THE CARD SOUND ROAD BRIDGE TO CAPE SABLE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE GULF WATERS FROM CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY ACCORDING TO THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
DESCRIBED BELOW IN THE SEGMENTS.

ALL PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREAS SHOULD REVISE THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT IT SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED FOR
THEIR AREA.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT
MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9N...LONGITUDE 81.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT
290 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FL...OR ABOUT 290 MILES SOUTH
OF NAPLES FL. THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE PRIMARY POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BE
RAINFALL FLOODING AND MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ON THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY, HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA. DUE TO THE
RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE
THAT MOST OF THE IMPACTS WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE. THIS MEANS THAT
ONLY A SLIGHT SHIFT EAST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WILL RESULT
IN THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING OFFSHORE.
NEVERTHELESS, SOUTH FLORIDIANS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
FIRST SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND SECOND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AND COASTAL
AREAS.

THERE IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR SLIGHT RISK OF WEAK TORNADOES MAINLY
ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SOME MINOR TIDAL
INUNDATION ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WARNING...NOW IS THE TIME TO RUSH TO COMPLETION
PREPARATIONS FOR THE PROTECTION OF LIFE AND PROPERTY IN ACCORDANCE
WITH THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS DESCRIBED IN THIS STATEMENT. EVACUATE IF
DIRECTED TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS...OR IF YOUR HOME IS
VULNERABLE TO HIGH WINDS OR FLOODING.

ALL COASTAL AND MARINE INTERESTS IN WARNING AREAS SHOULD COMPLETE
PREPARATIONS AS SOON AS POSSIBLE. IF YOU LIVE ON A BOAT...MAKE
FINAL PREPARATIONS NOW AND SECURE YOUR VESSEL BEFORE LEAVING. BE
SURE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE CLOSURE OF BRIDGES AND
CAUSEWAYS.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WARNING...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT AND WELL SECURED.

REGARDING ANY COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. DETERMINE THE BEST STRATEGY
FOR SECURING YOUR CRAFT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. YOU CAN ALSO GO
TO READY.GOV, READYSOUTHFLORIDA.ORG, FLORIDADISASTER.ORG, THE
AMERICAN RED CROSS AT REDCROSS.ORG OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT WEB SITE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI AROUND 6 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

FLZ168-172>174-291100-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1240 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PROBABILITY, WIND, AND FLOODING SECTIONS.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
25 TO 32 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR HIGHER PARTICULARLY IN RAIN BANDS DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER
...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPROACHES...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IF THE TRACK SHIFTS
WEST...THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES...OR THE SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS WRAPPED CLOSER TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER.
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT.

POTENTIAL IMPACT: GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST...THESE WINDS DO NOT
REPRESENT A THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. HOWEVER...IF ACTUAL TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA...MINOR DAMAGE
COULD OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES, ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE
UNANCHORED. A FEW HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES
AND SIDING. THOSE WINDS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
CARPORTS, AWNINGS, POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS. UNSECURED
LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES, CAUSING ADDITIONAL
DAMAGE. WINDS COULD BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES COULD BE
BLOWN DOWN, AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES. MOST NEWLY PLANTED
TREES AND SHRUBS COULD BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED. SMALL BRANCHES AND
NUMEROUS SMALL TWIGS COULD BREAK OFF TREES. SOME PALM FRONDS COULD
BE BLOWN DOWN.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF PATTERNS OF REPEATED
RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREAS DEVELOP THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
ACTUALLY BE TWICE THAN FORECAST IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS.
THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.

$$

FLZ067-068-071>074-291100-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0002.000000T0000Z-100930T0600Z/
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-
INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
1240 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED PROBABILITY, WIND, AND FLOODING SECTIONS.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 32 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER IN RAIN BANDS PARTICULARLY ALONG
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE COAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIXTEEN APPROACHES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
PARTICULARLY IF THE TRACK SHIFTS WEST...THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES...OR
THE SYSTEM GETS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MAXIMUM WINDS WRAPPED CLOSER
TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND BE READY TO ACT.

POTENTIAL IMPACT: GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST...THESE WINDS DO NOT
REPRESENT A THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. HOWEVER...IF ACTUAL TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE AREA...MINOR DAMAGE
COULD OCCUR TO MANY MOBILE HOMES, ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE
UNANCHORED. A FEW HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF SHINGLES
AND SIDING. THOSE WINDS WOULD ALSO BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
CARPORTS, AWNINGS, POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS. UNSECURED
LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS MAY BECOME PROJECTILES, CAUSING ADDITIONAL
DAMAGE. WINDS COULD BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES AND CAUSEWAYS,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES COULD BE
BLOWN DOWN, AND ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WOULD BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABOVE GROUND LINES. MOST NEWLY PLANTED
TREES AND SHRUBS COULD BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED. SMALL BRANCHES AND
NUMEROUS SMALL TWIGS COULD BREAK OFF TREES. SOME PALM FRONDS COULD
BE BLOWN DOWN.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM. IF PATTERNS OF REPEATED
RAINFALL OVER THE SAME AREAS DEVELOP THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD
ACTUALLY BE TWICE THAN FORECAST IN VERY LOCALIZED AREAS.
THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING
RAINS OCCUR.

$$

FLZ075-291100-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MAINLAND MONROE-
1240 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND AND PROBABILITY SECTIONS.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
15 TO 25 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER...AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN
APPROACHES...STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AND BE
READY TO ACT.

$$

AMZ630-650-651-670-671-291100-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
1240 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND AND PROBABILITY SECTIONS.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 33 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE
THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND SPREAD NORTH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BEGINS SUBSIDING BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KNOTS RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 55
KNOTS.

THESE WINDS WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY...AND LOCALLY HIGHER...WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY
LATE IN THE DAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SUBSIDE.

$$

GMZ657-291100-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.A.0002.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
1240 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WINDS AND PROBABILITY SECTIONS.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 25 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL
STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN PASSES NEARBY...THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE.  HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL SOME POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SINCE
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

$$

AMZ610-FLZ063-066-069-070-GMZ656-676-291100-
/O.CON.KMFL.HU.S.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-GLADES-HENDRY-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1240 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16 MAIN IMPACTS LIKELY TO REMAIN EAST OF
THE AREA...

...NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
AS CURRENTLY ASSESSED...THE ONSET OF EITHER TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE CONDITIONS IS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY NOT IN
EFFECT...NOR ARE THEY LIKELY UNDER PRESENT CIRCUMSTANCES.

THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL
STORM FORCE. AT THIS TIME...REMAIN CALM AND STAY INFORMED SHOULD
ADVERSE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OCCUR.

$$






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