[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 192033
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010
500 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

SINCE THIS MORNING...THE CENTER OF JULIA HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  AMSU AND ASCAT
ESTIMATES FROM AROUND 1200 UTC SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT...SO
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS
MORE STRONGLY SHEARED.  THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DECREASING
T-NUMBERS.  THE STATISTICAL MODELS STILL SHOW QUICKER WEAKENING
THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR
THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  JULIA WILL BE BATTLING VERY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
CIRCULATION TO SPIN DOWN.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF IGOR IN 48 HOURS.

AFTER TAKING A SUDDEN AND QUICK JUMP TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING...JULIA HAS SETTLED ON A MOTION OF ABOUT 50 DEGREES AT 12
KT.  THE UKMET...GFDL...AND GFDN SEEM TO UNREALISTICALLY TURN JULIA
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS...SO THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE OTHER MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODELS.
THIS TRACK REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/2100Z 34.8N  49.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 35.4N  48.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 36.3N  46.6W    35 KT
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 37.7N  44.4W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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