[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 30.8N 65.7W AT 19/1800 UTC OR
ABOUT 115 NM SSW OF BERMUDA MOVING N AT 16 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. IGOR REMAINS LARGE AND TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO IMPACT BERMUDA. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-36N BETWEEN
62W-69W.

TROPICAL STORM JULIA IS CENTERED NEAR 34.2N 50.3W AT 19/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 1150 NM W OF THE AZORES MOVING ENE AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED
IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JULIA
MOVES ENE AND CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WIND SHEAR FROM THE
OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-36N BETWEEN 46W-52W.

A 1008 MB LOW IS LOCATED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 15N31W
MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS
INCREASED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY N OF THE
CENTER FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 28W-34W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...ITCZ...

SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 14W-22W. FURTHER W...
A MONSOONAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR
15N24W TO THE 1008 MB LOW NEAR 15N31W TO 11N40W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 20W-26W...FROM
14N-17N BETWEEN 28W-34W...AND FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 34W-40W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 13N48W
4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 48W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N100W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF NE MEXICO
AND S TEXAS FROM 23N-28N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 90W-100W. MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE THE GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
W GULF NEAR 24N95W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
COVERS THE GULF N OF 23N. EXPECT... CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER S
TEXAS AND THE SW GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 63W-70W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 72W-83W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA.
SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
19N-21N BETWEEN 87W-90W. WEAK 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS COVERS MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... STRONG SUBSIDENCE
COVERS THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 67W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF 15N OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE IGOR...T.S. JULIA...TOGETHER WITH A TROPICAL LOW ARE
THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURES OVER THE ATLANTIC. IGOR...A
CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...IS PRESENTLY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER BERMUDA WITH HIGHER WINDS EXPECTED. SEE ABOVE.
JULIA IS NOW MOVING ENE TOWARDS THE AZORES. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE UPPER OUTFLOW OF IGOR CONTINUES TO SHEAR JULIA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DUST OVER THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 15N-25N E OF 55W TO W AFRICA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA










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