[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 052333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF
GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS
CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DATA FROM THE NATIONAL
SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT VERY DRY AIR IS
PRESENT NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...WHICH MAY BE INHIBITING
FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW SHOULD BE
MOVING INTO AN AREA WITH HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES IN A DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.  INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND IN A DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG
THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS LOW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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