[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW...REMNANT OF GASTON...IS ABOUT 600 NM E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 17N51W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE W FROM
15N-19N BETWEEN 50W-54W. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
RE-FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE SW GULF WHERE A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM A 1005 MB LOW 35 NM NE OFF THE COAST OF
THE CITY OF VERACRUZ NEAR 19.6N 95.4W. THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS NNE ALONG 23N95W TO 26N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 27N W OF 91W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. OFFICIAL DATA FROM SEVERAL WEATHER STATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CITY OF VERACRUZ HAVE REGISTERED BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HRS. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION...BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE TEXAS COAST BY TUESDAY
MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS INLAND OVER WEST AFRICA ALONG 10W MOVING W
NEAR 10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR THE
WAVE AXIS CONCENTRATED NEAR A 1009 MB LOW ALONG AND THE AXIS
NEAR 9N. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLC OVER THE NEXT
24 HRS.

...ITCZ...

A MONSOONAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF W AFRICA
NEAR 19N20W ALONG 10N23W TO 6N35W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS
AND CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 10N45W TO 12N60W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 6N TO 14N
BETWEEN THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 22W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO IS THE
SURFACE TROUGH/LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A LONGWAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE S AND SE CONUS ENTERS
THE N GULF NOTED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A RATHER WEAK STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA INTO THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W CONTINUING WESTWARD TO
29N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN 30 N MI S OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN 83W AND 91W. THIS SCENARIO IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 26N E OF
92W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO
SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 24N64W 20N65W 16N64W
ENHANCING SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN N OF 12N E OF 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SW OF
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO
THE N COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 N MI ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE TROUGH. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.
RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS IS NOTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
20N66W SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 24N64W 20N65W
16N64W ENHANCING SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 25N
BETWEEN 64W AND 72W. UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK/TROUGH MOVING NE OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
N OF 27N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE ATLC AND SUPPORTS THE SURFACE 1024 MB HIGH NEAR
36N45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net