[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 03/0600 UTC IS NEAR 34.6N
74.3W...OR ABOUT 85 MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. EARL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
16 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO
110 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE LATEST PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN
72W AND 75W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 27N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 03/0600 UTC IS NEAR
27.5N 66.8W...OR ABOUT 300 NM TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA.
FIONA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE 24N
TO 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W.

THE CENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF GASTON
IS NEAR 14N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
13N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 41W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 11N21W TO 10N40W TO 9N50W 7N62W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 25W AND 28N FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 38W AND 49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA AROUND A 25N92W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ITS ACCOMPANYING NORTH-TO-SOUTH
TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OPEN GULF WATERS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS COVER THE AREA FROM
BELIZE AND HONDURAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC...IN AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THAT AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CLUSTERS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. A LITTLE BIT OF AN INVERTED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N79W 16N80W 12N81W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 70W IS
COVERED BY THE FLOW THAT IS AROUND HURRICANE EARL. THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 64W AND 71W IS COVERED
BY TROPICAL STORM FIONA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS BUMPING INTO TROPICAL STORM FIONA AS IT DIGS TOWARD
THE SOUTHWEST...JUST REACHING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 23N53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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