[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMHX 022155
HLSMHX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
555 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...LARGE HURRICANE EARL MOVING NORTHWARD...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY
WINDS ALREADY APPROACHING THE OUTER BANKS...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
WASHINGTON...TYRRELL...MAINLAND DARE...BEAUFORT...MAINLAND HYDE...
CRAVEN...PAMLICO...CARTERET...OUTER BANKS DARE AND OUTER BANKS
HYDE COUNTIES. INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND
ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
ONSLOW COUNTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...MARTIN...PITT...GREENE...DUPLIN...LENOIR AND JONES
COUNTIES.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH
NEAR 18 MPH...BUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. THE CENTER OF
EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE EARL IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...MAKING ITS CLOSEST APPROACH NEAR CAPE HATTERAS
AROUND 2 AM TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY THE STORM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF
A CAPE LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET LINE. THIS WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES TO THESE LOCATIONS. PLEASE
NOTE THAT THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK IS SUBJECT TO SHIFT. DUE TO THE
STRENGTH OF THE STORM AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...EVEN A SMALL
CHANGE IN TRACK COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT CONDITIONS
IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT IS DIMINISHING.

HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTER
BANKS...WITH AROUND TWO INCHES POSSIBLE OVER DOWNEAST CARTERET
COUNTY. ISOLATED FLOODING OF LOW SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER BANKS. RAINFALL WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN AN INCH IN THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE WARNED LOCATIONS.

SIGNIFICANT SWELLS WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF STRONG RIP CURRENTS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 15 FEET OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE OUTER BANKS AND 10 TO 15 FEET ALONG THE CRYSTAL
COAST. STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE OCEAN SIDE LOCATIONS
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. THIS...COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE
ACTION...WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT EROSION AND OVERWASH.
INUNDATION UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET IS ALSO POSSIBLE SOUNDSIDE ON THE
OUTER BANKS AND IN THE LOWER NEUSE RIVER AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO AND
CORE SOUND AREAS IN CARTERET COUNTY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

ANY HURRICANE PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY NOW.

IF EVACUATING...LEAVE SOON.

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD HAVE SECURED THEIR
CRAFT BY NOW.

LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY AROUND 9 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

NCZ045>047-080-081-093-094-032200-
/O.CON.KMHX.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-CRAVEN-
PAMLICO-
555 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND PROBABILITIES

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF PAMLICO AND
BEAUFORT COUNTIES. BEAUFORT COUNTY HAS TWO SHELTERS OPEN...NORTHSIDE
AND SOUTHSIDE HIGH SCHOOLS.

FOUR SHELTERS ARE ALSO OPEN IN CRAVEN COUNTY...BEN QUINN
ELEMENTARY...BRINSON ELEMENTARY...FARM LIFE ELEMENTARY...AND
HAVELOCK HIGH SCHOOL. BEN QUINN ELEMENTARY IS PET FRIENDLY.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 14 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 95 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING. MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER
MOBILE HOMES. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
INUNDATION OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER NEUSE RIVER
NEAR NEW BERN INCREASING TO 4 TO 6 FEET ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER NEAR
CLUBFOOT CREEK. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
THERE. ALONG THE PAMLICO RIVER INCLUDING THE WASHINGTON AND AREAS
IN EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PAMLICO COUNTY 1 TO 2 FEET OF
INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE RESULTING IN ONLY MINOR FLOODING.

$$

NCZ098-032200-
/O.CON.KMHX.TR.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ONSLOW-
555 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND PROBABILITIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THREE SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN ONSLOW COUNTY...DIXON MIDDLE SCHOOL...
SWANSBORO HIGH SCHOOL...AND JACKSONVILLE COMMONS MIDDLE.
JACKSONVILLE COMMONS MIDDLE IS ANIMAL FRIENDLY.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 62
PERCENT.

...WINDS...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS EVENING. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 8 PM AND 2 AM IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...MAINLY IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY NEAR THE BEACHES. PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR WIND
DAMAGE...PRIMARILY TO SHRUBBERY... TREES...AND LOOSE OBJECTS.
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
BREAKING WAVES WILL PEAK TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AT AROUND
10 TO 15 FT. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL ALSO PEAK AT THAT TIME
AROUND 1 TO 2 FEET. THE SURGE COUPLED WITH HIGH WAVE RUN UP WILL
CAUSE MAJOR BEACH EROSION AND OVERWASH.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.
INCREASED BREAKING WAVES AND ROUGH SURF WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.
DUE TO RIP CURRENTS AND VERY ROUGH SURF...BEACH GOERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

$$

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-032200-
/O.CON.KMHX.HU.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
555 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND PROBABILITIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD HAVE SECURED THEIR
CRAFT BY NOW.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 58 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 100 PERCENT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS
EVENING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 45 TO 65 KNOTS
RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS...HIGHEST BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND
OREGON INLET.

SEAS WILL PEAK ACROSS THE AREA AT 20 TO 30 FEET TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...HIGHEST BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND OREGON INLET.

$$

NCZ095-032200-
/O.CON.KMHX.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CARTERET-
555 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED SHELTER INFORMATION AND WIND PROBABILITIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE MUNICIPALITIES OF ATLANTIC BEACH...EMERALD ISLE...INDIAN
BEACH...AND PINE KNOLL SHORES ARE UNDER A MANDATORY EVACUATION.
ACCESS TO THESE MUNICIPALITIES AND BOGUE BANKS IS RESTRICTED TO
ESSENTIAL PERSONNEL ONLY.

CARTERET COUNTY CONTROL GROUP HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION
OF THE MEDICALLY FRAGILE POPULATION...AND THOSE IN LOW LYING
AREAS...MANUFACTURED AND OTHER FRAGILE HOUSING...PARTICULARLY
SOUTH RIVER...NORTH RIVER...AND AREAS EAST OF THE NORTH RIVER
BRIDGE. THIS INCLUDES ALL AREAS SUBJECT TO SOUND SIDE FLOODING.

CARTERET COUNTY SCHOOLS WILL BE CLOSED FRIDAY.

THREE SHELTERS ARE OPEN IN CARTERET COUNTY...ATLANTIC ELEMENTARY
SCHOOL...WEST CARTERET HIGH SCHOOL...AND NEWPORT MIDDLE SCHOOL.

A SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTER IS OPEN AT LEON MANN SENIOR CENTER.

LENOIR COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE IN KINSTON IS OPEN AS A SHELTER
FOR CARTERET COUNTY EVACUEES.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 9 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 94 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL VARY GREATLY ACROSS THE COUNTY FROM WEST TO EAST. PEAK
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE 40 TO 55 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH...HIGHEST
DOWN EAST. PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF MINOR WIND
DAMAGE...PRIMARILY TO SHRUBBERY... TREES...AND LOOSE OBJECTS.
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE PEAK IN BREAKING WAVES WILL COME LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AT 10 TO 15 FEET. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL ALSO PEAK AT
THAT TIME AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET OCEAN SIDE. THE SURGE COUPLED WITH
HIGH WAVE RUN UP WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND
OVERWASH.

SOUNDSIDE STORM SURGES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN DOWNEAST
CARTERET COUNTY INTO CORE SOUND.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM COASTAL
FLOODING.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.
INCREASED BREAKING WAVES AND ROUGH SURF WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.
DUE TO RIP CURRENTS AND VERY ROUGH SURF...BEACH GOERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

$$

NCZ103-104-032200-
/O.CON.KMHX.HU.W.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
555 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND PROBABILITIES...WINDS...AND SHELTER INFORMATION.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
TO OCRACOKE.

THERE IS A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL VISITORS THROUGHOUT DARE COUNTY...AND
FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS FOR SOUTH NAGS HEAD AND HATTERAS
ISLAND. IN ADDITION...RESIDENTS ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT ARE ADVISED
TO RELOCATE DUE TO COASTAL FLOODING AND OCEAN OVERWASH THAT WILL
OCCUR.

THE NATIONAL PARK SERVICE HAS ANNOUNCED THE CLOSURE OF VISITOR
CENTERS AND CAMPGROUNDS. EXPECTED SURF CONDITIONS WILL CREATE
UNSAFE CONDITIONS ON BEACHES AND OFF-ROAD VEHICLE USE WILL BE
PROHIBITED UNTIL CONDITIONS ALLOW.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 32
PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME IS 90 TO 99 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
THE OUTER BANKS FROM CAPE HATTERAS SOUTH WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS GREATER
THAN 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER BANKS BY LATE EVENING.
THE OUTER BANKS INCLUDING OCRACOKE WILL SEE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50
TO 60 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 75 MPH BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LAST FOR A FEW HOURS.

PREPARE FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF MODERATE DAMAGE WITH LARGE BRANCHES
AND TREES BLOWN DOWN. SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE TO
BUILDINGS. SIGNIFICANT POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. WIND BLOWN
DEBRIS WILL BLOCK SOME ROADWAYS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
BREAKING WAVES WILL PEAK LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY AT 12 TO
18 FEET. STORM SURGE VALUES WILL ALSO PEAK AT THAT TIME AROUND
3 TO 5 FEET. THE SURGE COUPLED WITH HIGH WAVE RUN UP WILL CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND OVERWASH. SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY
12 ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL BE AFFECTED STARTING TONIGHT. IT IS
POSSIBLE HATTERAS ISLAND COULD BE BREACHED IN NARROW LOCATIONS
NORTH OF BUXTON. HIGH TIDE AROUND 3 AM FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS.

SOUNDSIDE STORM SURGES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF OREGON INLET TO
OCRACOKE AND 1 TO 3 FEET OF INUNDATION EXPECTED NORTH OF OREGON
INLET. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 WILL LIKELY BE INUNDATED.

THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM COASTAL
FLOODING...POTENTIALLY HAVING A MAJOR IMPACT. THE CONCERN IS FOR
THE CHANCE OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TO OCCUR IN AREAS WITHIN THE
SURGE ZONE...RESULTING IN DAMAGING AND LIFE THREATENING
INUNDATION.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES.
INCREASED BREAKING WAVES AND ROUGH SURF WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.
DUE TO RIP CURRENTS AND VERY ROUGH SURF...BEACH GOERS ARE URGED
TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

$$

NCZ029-044-079-090>092-031000-
/O.CON.KMHX.TI.W.0001.100903T0000Z-100903T1000Z/
MARTIN-PITT-GREENE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-
555 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND AND WIND PROBABILITIES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LENOIR COUNTY COMMUNITY COLLEGE HAS BEEN OPENED AS A SHELTER FOR
CARTERET COUNTY EVACUEES.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 62 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
THE LATEST AREA FORECAST IS FOR MAXIMUM WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH. GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING. DAMAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

$$





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