[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS81 KOKX 020000
HLSOKX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
800 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...HURRICANE EARL TO POSSIBLY IMPACT AREA ON FRIDAY...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN...SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON...ESSEX...HUDSON...UNION...SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)...BRONX...RICHMOND (STATEN
ISLAND)...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...QUEENS...NASSAU...NORTHWESTERN
SUFFOLK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK AND
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL
OF LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTAL WATERS AND NEW YORK
HARBOR.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.3N...LONGITUDE 73.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTH
OF NEW YORK CITY NY...OR ABOUT 1020 MILES SOUTH OF MONTAUK POINT
NY. THE STORM MOTION WAS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 320 DEGREES AT
17 MPH. THE STORM INTENSITY WAS 135 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
IMPACTS FROM A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE CAN BE FELT SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES AWAY.

WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST
VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED. FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING
TO YOUR EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU
LIVE ON A BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR. CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR OFFICIAL STORM
INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...PLEASE
REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR LOCATION AS
FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN UPTON AROUND 12 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

CTZ010>012-NYZ078>081-021200-
/O.CON.KOKX.TR.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
800 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.
STRONGLY CONSIDER EVACUATING IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...AND DO
SO IF ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 9 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 53 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A
GENERAL SLIGHT UPWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR
DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE EARL. MUCH DEPENDS ON THE
PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP TO 6 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITHIN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST...RESULTING
IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION UP TO 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A GENERAL CONCERN FOR THE CHANCE OF AREAS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

...RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING
SHORES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THESE RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING TO ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF.

$$

CTZ009-NJZ005-006-011-NYZ071>077-021200-
/O.CON.KOKX.TR.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-ESSEX-HUDSON-UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-
800 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.
STRONGLY CONSIDER EVACUATING IF YOU LIVE IN A MOBILE HOME...AND DO
SO IF ORDERED BY LOCAL OFFICIALS.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 40 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR WINDS TO
REMAIN JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HOWEVER...EVEN A SLIGHT
CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF HURRICANE EARL COULD RESULT IN STRONGER
WINDS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE EXACT HEIGHTS OF COMBINED
STORM SURGE AND TIDE WATERS FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS WITHIN THE
FORECAST AREA TO BE CAUSED BY HURRICANE EARL. MUCH DEPENDS ON THE
PRECISE SIZE...INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES
THE COAST. GIVEN THE LATEST FORECAST...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
COMBINED STORM SURGE AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WATERS UP TO 6 FEET
ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL WITHIN AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST...RESULTING
IN WORST CASE FLOOD INUNDATION UP TO 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SURGE ZONE.

AT THIS TIME...THERE IS A GENERAL CONCERN FOR THE CHANCE OF AREAS
OF MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. THE BEST CHANCE OF MODERATE
FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND.

...RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING SHORES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THESE RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING TO
ANYONE WHO ENTERS THE SURF.

$$

ANZ330-340-021200-
/O.CON.KOKX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
800 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 3 TO
9 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 53 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT UPWARD
TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 6 FEET BY FRIDAY
EVENING.

$$

ANZ335-021200-
/O.CON.KOKX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
800 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
32 TO 39 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BEGIN
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 5 FEET BY FRIDAY
EVENING.

$$

ANZ350-353-021200-
/O.CON.KOKX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
800 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 5 TO
13 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 59 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT UPWARD
TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY MORNING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 15 FEET BY FRIDAY
EVENING.

$$

ANZ355-021200-
/O.CON.KOKX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
800 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS THAN OR
EQUAL TO 7 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 48 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT UPWARD
TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 12 FEET BY FRIDAY
EVENING.

$$

ANZ338-021200-
/O.CON.KOKX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NEW YORK HARBOR-
800 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
31 TO 35 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND SINCE THE
LAST FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR WINDS TO
REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HOWEVER...EVEN A SLIGHT CHANGE
IN THE TRACK OF HURRICANE EARL COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 7 FEET NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF THE LOWER
HARBOR BY FRIDAY EVENING.

$$

ANZ345-021200-
/O.CON.KOKX.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
800 PM EDT WED SEP 1 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 3 TO
8 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT
THIS TIME IS UP TO 50 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT UPWARD
TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE MOST
LIKELY TO BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 3 FEET BY FRIDAY EVENING.

$$





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