[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 012358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 02/0000 UTC IS NEAR 27.2N
73.5W...OR ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA... MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 15 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 941 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-28N
BETWEEN 72W-74W. IN ADDITION... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 71W-76W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 01/2100 UTC IS NEAR 20.2N
62.9W...OR ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM N OF ANGUILLA...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 60 KT. THE CENTER OF FIONA IS PRESENTLY EXPOSED DUE TO
WINDSHEAR. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 63W-66W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

TROPICAL STORM GASTON AT 01/2100 UTC IS NEAR 12.9N 37.0W OR
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...MOVING
WEST AT 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005
MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
VALUES NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY W OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 36W-40W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NO OTHER TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 11N16W TO 9N20W...RESUMING WEST
OF T.S. GASTON NEAR 8N40W CONTINUING TO 8N50W 10N60W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND TROPICAL
WAVE SECTIONS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 15W-22W...AND FROM
12N-14N BETWEEN 14W-21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-10N BETWEEN 43W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA NEAR 37N81W PRODUCING E
TO SE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS RATHER LAX THUS WINDS ARE MOSTLY 10-15 KT. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM INTO
A SURFACE LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 91W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN ADDITION...A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED OVER W CUBA AND THE SE GULF FROM THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND W ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-26N
BETWEEN 80W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR 32N99W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 29N90W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE S OF THIS LOW IS PRODUCING ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO
MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
PRESENTLY CONVECTION IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DUE TO T.S.
FIONA. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE ALSO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-19N
BETWEEN 60W-70W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 73W-82W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W. UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. EXPECT...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH FIONA TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HURRICANE EARL...TROPICAL STORM FIONA... AND TROPICAL STORM
GASTON ARE THE MAIN FEATURES OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICS...A 1021
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N56W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS ALSO NOTED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY E OF 50W N OF 16N. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF
25N BETWEEN 35W-55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA



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