[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL AT 01/0600 UTC IS NEAR 23.5N
70.7W...OR ABOUT 125 NM/235 KM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GRAND
TURK ISLAND...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 13 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N TO
24N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA AT 01/0600 UTC IS NEAR
16.9N 59.4W...OR ABOUT 160 NM TO THE EAST OF GUADELOUPE...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W
AND 60W...AND FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND 61W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W...AND FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 33W AND 35W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 38W AND 40W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM 15N17W TO 12N30W...8N35W CURVING TO 10N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
8N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N42W 7N52W 11N55W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS...SOME IN THE AREA OF THE TROUGH...AND SOME TO THE
WEST OF 90W IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF THE TROUGH. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER
NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA...THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW IN THE
SAME AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
18N TO THE WEST OF 80W. A BROAD SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL WATERS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN A FEW
CLUSTERS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. HURRICANE EARL
HAS BEEN PULLING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
THAT ACCOMPANY TROPICAL STORM FIONA ARE APPROACHING THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND/OR ALREADY HAVE ARRIVED.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W IS COVERED BY ANYTHING THAT
IS RELATED TO HURRICANE EARL. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
TO 30N50W AND 28N51W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOUT 640 NM
TO THE EAST OF THE 34N47W 28N51W TROUGH. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 33N40W TO 31N45W.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N30W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N45W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N64W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT



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