[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SHARY AT 30/0000 UTC IS NEAR
31.2N 64.4W...OR ABOUT 130 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.
SHARY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/
WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 31N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA OF STORM. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N63W 28N67W 24N71W. MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...AND
WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N60W 19N66W.

TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS UPGRADED AT 29/2100 UTC.
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 30/0000 UTC IS NEAR
11.6N 57.6W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 13 KT. TOMAS IS ABOUT
270 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS...AND ABOUT 435 KM TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. VINCENT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 999 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
55W AND 57W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ALONG
THE COAST OF SURINAME ARE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND
VORTICITY THAT HAVE BEEN GENERATED AROUND TOMAS.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 8N13W 10N20W 8N26W 7N31W 8N36W
7N43W 10N50W. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 20N18W 15N21W 8N24W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN U.S.A.
COAST...FROM NEW YORK SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N72W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 26.5N80W...
CROSSING FLORIDA AND ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N89W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N89W...CURVING SOUTHWESTWARD
TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18.5N95W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 94W IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
26N82W 23N90W 21N97W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN MEXICO
IN THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 18N92.5W...AND IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 89W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 11N57W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR
FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR 13N62W AS A TROPICAL STORM STILL.
THIS MEANS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS GOING TO HAVE TO PASS ON
TOP OF OR REALLY CLOSE TO SOME OF THE ISLANDS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. PLEASE CONSULT YOUR COUNTRY'S
INDIVIDUAL WEATHER BUREAU OFFICE BULLETINS REGARDING WARNINGS
FOR THIS TROPICAL STORM. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATES
FROM TROPICAL STORM TOMAS COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF 10N70W
16N70W BEYOND 20N66W...CROSSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO AS IT
EXITS THE AREA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SOME RAINSHOWERS THAT
ARE AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL
STORM TOMAS MAY BE REACHING SOME OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
ISLANDS ALREADY. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE CYCLONIC FLOW
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA PASSES ON TOP OF GREAT INAGUA AND
THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
ON TOP OF JAMAICA TO 15N79W...TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL NICARAGUA.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA COASTAL BORDER OF COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL COLOMBIA
BETWEEN 73W AND 75W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTH
AMERICA...AND POSSIBLY THE ITCZ.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TROPICAL STORM SHARY AND TROPICAL STORM TOMAS ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS IN AREA. WHAT REMAINS OF ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 31N15W 28N25W 26N37W 27N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 19N19W 5N28W...SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net