[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 300003
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010
800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010

ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF TOMAS...THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61
KT AND SFMR MEASUREMENTS AROUND 50 KT.  THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND A SPECIAL
ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH
THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  IN ADDITION...THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN
ACCORDANCE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA.

BUOY 41101 IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS OF 13 FT WELL NORTH OF THE
CENTER...REQUIRING AN EXPANSION OF THE 12-FT SEAS RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      30/0000Z 11.6N  57.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     30/0600Z 12.0N  59.5W    55 KT
 24HR VT     30/1800Z 12.9N  61.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     31/0600Z 13.5N  64.0W    70 KT
 48HR VT     31/1800Z 14.1N  66.2W    80 KT
 72HR VT     01/1800Z 14.8N  70.4W    90 KT
 96HR VT     02/1800Z 15.2N  74.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     03/1800Z 16.0N  76.0W   100 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/BROWN


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