[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161047
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N18W 07N27W 10N37W 07N43W 04N54W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 09N17W TO
21N13W THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 05N-14N BETWEEN 14W-24W. ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 06N43W TO 15N35W. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 02N-10N BETWEEN 32W-42W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 21W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
21N68W PRODUCING SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADVECTION OF MID- TO UPPER-
LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND NORTHWARD TO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR
CONDITIONS ENHANCED BY THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 28N94W. MAINLY N-NE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE
BASIN THIS MORNING. THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TRANSLATES
E-NE ALONG THE GULF COAST LOCATING OVER THE W ATLC BY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
21N68W COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. VERY DRY EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 13N E OF 78W ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY...MAINLY W OF 78W...MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA LARGELY
REMAINING S OF 20N. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM
EASTERN PANAMA NEAR 09N79W TO 14N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE S OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-80W AND S OF 16N BETWEEN
80W-85W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NICARAGUA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS UNDER CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS BELOW 20 KT AS
NOTED ON AN EARLIER 16/0144 UTC ASCAT PASS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING SW
TO 25N73W THEN BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR
24N76W AND INTO THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF PAULA...A 1012 MB
LOW...CENTERED NEAR 23N78W. WHILE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OR REMNANT LOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND FROM 22N-25N
BETWEEN 74W-79W. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
EASTERN MAINE AND AN ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE FRONT. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT ALSO SKIRTS THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 31N W OF 75W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
AIR IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE PRIMARY FRONT KEEPING CONDITIONS
FAIR OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E TO 23N56W THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N50W.
THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF
1016 MB HIGHS CENTERED NEAR 29N51W AND 22N51W. FARTHER EAST...A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 25W-42W IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT MEANDERS ALONG 32N28W 25N43W INTO A 1014 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N52W THEN TO 23N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N
OF 25N WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 40W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH W OF
40W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
26N26W COVERS THE FAR E ATLC AND SUPPORTS OVERALL STABLE
CONDITIONS N OF 16N SE OF A LINE FROM 32N23W TO 16N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net