[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N13W 09N16W 04N30W 06N39W 05N47W.
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG THE W AFRICA COAST FROM 07N16W TO
13N17W TO 18N15W THAT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N-14N BETWEEN 11W-22W.
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 05N39W TO 13N35W. A
BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
03N-10N BETWEEN 30W-44W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 24W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
21N70W PRODUCING MAINLY SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ADVECTION OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA NORTHWARD TO OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS
ENHANCED BY THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NW GULF CENTERED NEAR
28N93W. MAINLY N-NE SURFACE WINDS UP TO 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS
THE BASIN THIS EVENING. THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
TRANSLATES E-NE LOCATING OVER THE W ATLC BY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR
21N70W COVERS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. VERY DRY EASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY N OF 13N E OF 77W ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY...MAINLY W OF 77W...MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ADVECTING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
NW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS FOCUSED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF
A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL PANAMA NEAR 09N79W TO
15N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN 72W-81W
AND S OF 15N BETWEEN 81W-85W...INCLUDING INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND EASTERN NICARAGUA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS WITH EASTERLY WINDS BELOW 20 KT
AS CAPTURED ON AN EARLIER 16/0144 UTC ASCAT PASS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING SW
TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N78W. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF
PAULA...A 1011 MB LOW...IS CENTERED AT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CENTERED NEAR 23N79W. WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OR
REMNANT LOW...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT AND FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 76W-79W. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE AND AN ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. SE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED N
OF HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS E TO 23N57W
THEN NE TO BEYOND 32N54W. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N53W. A
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 30W-42W IS SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT MEANDERS ALONG 32N32W 26N40W 25N50W 24N56W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 25N WITHIN 240 NM
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH W OF 40W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND
A 1015 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N28W COVERS THE FAR E ATLC AND
SUPPORTS OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS N OF 17N SE OF A LINE FROM
32N25W TO 17N43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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