[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151130
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
15/0900 UTC. T.D. PAULA IS CENTERED NEAR 23.1N 80.2W AT 15/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 56 NM E OF VERADERO CUBA AND ABOUT 52 NM NW OF
CAIBARIEN CUBA MOVING E AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PAULA
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH REPORTS FROM CUBAN STATIONS INDICATING
NO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE LOW CENTER WITHIN 45 NM OF
LINE FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAIBARIEN TO ACROSS ANDROS
ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS TO 25N77W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 5N24W 8N36W 5N53W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 21W BETWEEN
10N-17N WITH A WELL DEFINED INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM
12N37W TO 5N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 16W-22W...
WITHIN 275/325 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-42W...AND WITHIN 120
NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 27W-34W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF
THE ITCZ BETWEEN 18W-27W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
34W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
3N-8N BETWEEN 8N-15W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
T.D. PAULA REMAINS INLAND OVER CUBA AND IS NOT AFFECTING THE
GULF. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS E U.S. INTO THE GULF N OF 25N
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA
FROM VERO BEACH TO NAPLES INTO THE GULF WATERS TO NEAR 23N87W. A
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
DOMINATES THE S GULF DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THIS FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE N SURFACE
FLOW ARE GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY S OF 22N W OF 90W. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND WITH DRY STABLE AIR DOMINATE THE GULF N OF 22N
LEAVING ALL BUT THE SW GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A
SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN
STATES AND MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N79W
ALONG 14N82W TO 10N81W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-19N W OF 81W TO
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND OVER HAITI INTO THE GULF OF GONAVE. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR
11N75W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N80W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 13N W
OF 73W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. AND THE N GULF OF MEXICO
COVERS THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 74W
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N74W
DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR VERO BEACH.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N71W TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N77W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA COVERS THE
W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 55W DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR
29N57W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
32N38W TO 24N50W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
30N35W ALONG 28N45W 26N53W TO 21N60W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH
AXIS E OF 48W AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. THE WEAK CUT OFF UPPER LOW
REMAINS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N56W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A
1017 MB HIGH NEAR 24N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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