[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 150834
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010

PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE
HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM CUBAN
STATIONS SINCE THE CENTER PASSED HAVANA...AND WHEN THE CENTER
PASSED VARADERO THE REPORTED PRESSURE WAS NEAR 1010 MB.  IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...
WITH ONLY ONE CLUSTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.
BASED ON THE CUBAN DATA...PAULA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 085/12.  PAULA IS BEING STEERED BY A
DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE REMAINS OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING EASTWARD...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD OR SOUTHWARD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO
THE NORTH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  THIS
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS A SIZEABLE SPREAD ON WHEN THE SOUTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION
AND MOTION.  THE TRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPS.

PAULA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE 35-40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED
WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE AREA AFTER 24 HR.  SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BEFORE 48 HR...SO THE
REMNANT LOW MAY NOT SURVIVE AS LONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      15/0900Z 23.1N  80.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 23.2N  79.0W    25 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 23.0N  77.8W    25 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 22.4N  77.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.5N  77.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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