[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 051122
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WWWW UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 22N63W THROUGH A 1006 MB LOW
CENTERED JUST S OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO 15N72W AND
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION
COVER THE AREA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 68W-72W AND FROM 11N-14N
BETWEEN 70W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 240 NM S OF THE TROUGH TO
THE LOW CENTER.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT BY TONIGHT OR WED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NW
AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO
RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 38W
S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 32W-37W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N11W 6N17W 8N25W THEN RESUMES
NEAR 5N42W 6N50W 7N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ ALONG 26W FROM 4N-10N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS N OF THE
ITCZ FROM ALONG 47W FROM 11N-18N WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE
TROUGH NEAR 14N GENERATING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 45W-48W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
12N-18N BETWEEN 43W-48W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
75 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 14W-16W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 3N-10N
BETWEEN 9W-20W INCLUDING THE SW COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 28W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE SW
GULF S OF 22W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. COVERS THE N GULF
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF GIVING
THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS SW UPPER FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
FIRM CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKE
REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ACCOMPANYING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA SW
TO PANAMA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 75W O INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
MOSTLY DRIER AIR COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY SCATTERED
AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND
THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC TO 75W SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N72W S ALONG
27N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 23N78W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N76W SE TO OVER N HAITI NEAR
19N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125
NM E AND 75 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 24N AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A NARROW UPPER
RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM HAITI ALONG
26N74W TO 32N70W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT/TROUGH TO THE W. AN UPPER LOW
IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N67W WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S TO THE E END OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W ENHANCING
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES. A SECOND
LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
20N51W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH IN
THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 25N
E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE
AZORES AND BERMUDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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