[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERING NE CARIBBEAN WITH A 1007
MB LOW CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 17N66W WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 12N67W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 58W ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES TO 74W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT BY TONIGHT OR WED AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NW AT 5 TO 10 KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 38W
S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 32W-37W.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 8N17W 8N36W 9N47W 7N55W
11N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 24W
FROM 3N-10N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE 6N21W 8N25W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM ALONG 47W FROM 5N-16N WITH A
1010 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 12N GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 43W-48W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N
BETWEEN 8W-20W INCLUDING THE SW COAST OF AFRICA AND FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 25W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS REMAINING ACROSS THE SW GULF
S OF 22W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. COVERS THE N GULF
WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE S GULF GIVING
THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS SW UPPER FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
FIRM CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKE REGION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ACCOMPANYING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 15N29W TO 20N81W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM
HISPANIOLA SW TO PANAMA PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE
THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW AND E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES. MOSTLY DRIER AIR COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ONLY
SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND
THE N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC TO 75W SUPPORTING A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N72W
S ALONG 27N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO 23N78W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N76W SE TO OVER N
HAITI NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 125 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND WITHIN 90/120 NM NE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AS WELL AS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM W OF THE
ENTIRE FRONT. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT
EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N72W TO 32N69W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT/TROUGH TO THE W. AN UPPER LOW IS N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
23N66W WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES. A SECOND LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N49W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY A
1026 MB HIGH ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE AZORES AND BERMUDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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