[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC FROM
15N31W TO 6N33W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE IS NOTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 30W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 21N61W THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND A 1007 MB LOW NEAR 17N65W TO 11N67W MOVING W 5-10 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE THAT
COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
19N57W ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N66W WITH THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY NW OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY
AN UPPER LOW NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 5N16W 8N33W 7N39W 9N47W
8N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 9N21W
TO 3N23W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ FROM 13N44W THROUGH A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N46W TO 7N47W WITH
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 9N43W TO
11N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 3N TO
INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 17W-29W AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 23W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAINING
ACROSS THE GULF S OF 28W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES AND THE
GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR
GUANTANAMO THEN JUST E JAMAICA ALONG 15N76W TO 10N81W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N
BETWEEN 72W-82W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW...SEE ABOVE. THE UPPER
LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM
12N68W TO 14N78W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IN THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 13N TO OVER VENEZUELA
BETWEEN 61W-63W INCLUDING TRINIDAD BUT NOT TOBAGO. CONSIDERABLE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 80W TO
HONDURAS NEAR 87W WHERE DRIER AIR PREVAILS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND THE
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC TO 76W SUPPORTING A
1009 MB LOW NEAR 30N76W AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S
TO OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
28N75W OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N77W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE
W CARIBBEAN NEAR GUANTANAMO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING N TO 30N74W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 25N69W WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N
TO BEYOND 32N66W AND S ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N70W PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM
22N69W TO 26N71W. AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
21N61W ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE CARIBBEAN. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
26N38W BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE E ATLC THAT
IS MOVING TO OVER SPAIN TO NW AFRICA. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
ATLC E OF 60W ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH HALF WAY BETWEEN THE
AZORES AND BERMUDA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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