[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 032351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 6N35W TO 14N32W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TRACKED SINCE EMERGING OFF THE W AFRICA COAST
AND REMAINS A RELATIVELY WEAK PERTURBATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ. THE WAVE AXIS IS COLLOCATED WITH AN AREA OF ELEVATED
VALUES OF MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 12N
BETWEEN 31W AND 35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING ALONG
21N61W 15N64W TO 11N66W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A BROAD 1007 MB
LOW CENTER IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 17N63W. WHILE A
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXISTS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG
THE LESSER ANTILLES PRODUCING NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 55W-65W. CONSIDERABLE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THIS REGION FROM TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. LOCALLY FLASH FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND
HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES DUE SATURATED TERRAIN OVER THESE
AREAS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR
6N11W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 7N30W 9N40W 8N50W 10N60W. ASIDE FROM
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC MENTIONED
ABOVE...A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
ONE IS ANALYZED FROM 9N20W TO 3N22W AND EXHIBITS A LOW-AMPLITUDE
CYCLONIC PERTURBATION TO THE MEAN EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED
WEAK CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 22W-26W. THE OTHER
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 13N42W TO 6N45W WITH A 1011 MB LOW
CENTERED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 10N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 41W AND
48W. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ITCZ...SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E
OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT CONTINUES TO COVER THE
REGION NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A
FEW AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ROAM THE PREMISES.
MARINE OBS COMBINED WITH SATELLITE LOW LEVEL DERIVED WINDS SHOW
SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE GULF...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT CONVERGING OVER THE FAR SW BASIN AND
INTO THE CHIVELA PASS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLC AND THE BAHAMAS ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
GUANTANAMO BAY CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NEAR
9N81W. A WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT IS NOTED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A SURFACE LOW EMBEDDED IN
IT IS TRACKING WESTWARD BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
TSTMS TO MUCH OF THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 70W. MORE DETAILS ARE
LOCATED ABOVE UNDER TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER
MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE EASTERN
US SEABOARD SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH THAT
EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 28N75W 24N76W 21N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 65 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. TO THE NEAR NW OF THIS FEATURE...A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 30N77W WITH A WAKING COLD FRONT EXTENDING S TO GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND. NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT AT THE MOMENT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS IMPACTED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N46W. SSE WINDS ARE ALONG THE FAR
SW PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH.
THIS FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND
72W. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION N OF 21N E OF 66W...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE 1026 MB HIGH MENTIONED EARLIER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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