[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020539
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG
18W/19W S OF 19N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE
IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
DRAWING THE ENERGY NORTHWARD. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 20N51W THROUGH A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
16N52W TO 13N53W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS TRAILING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE N OF THE LOW CENTER. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
FROM 16N49W TO 18N53W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N21W 10N30W 6N42W 5N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ
FROM 21W-26W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 26W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT DOMINATES THE GULF TONIGHT.
SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE E
U.S. INTO THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA SW TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO THEN NARROWS ACROSS MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING
ACROSS THE W GULF AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE MOISTURE LEVEL WILL STAY LOW GIVING THE GULF
WATERS FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM A STATIONARY FRONT IN
THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR W OF JAMAICA TO
12N81W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
12N-20N BETWEEN 76W-82W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE E
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ALONG
15N66W TO THE JUST INLAND OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N65W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 63W-68W INCLUDING THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATE BY
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA.
CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NW OF A LINE FROM
CUBA NEAR 80W TO CENTRAL BELIZE WHERE DRIER AIR DOMINATES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS
TONIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF THE ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E U.S. INTO THE NW ATLC
SUPPORTING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE W ATLC NEAR 32N72W
CONTINUING ALONG 29N75W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC ANCHORED BETWEEN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS AND CUBA NEAR
22N75W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF
CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 60W-72W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N25W TO 20N36W AND IS DRAWING THE N PORTION
OF THE TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NORTHWARD. A LARGE
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 1026 MB HIGH N
OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE TROPICS NEAR
9N39W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 36W-42W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE
LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 57W/58W BETWEEN 10N-17N GENERATING
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF
18N59W AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 56W-61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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