[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED 20N51W TO 13N53W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. A SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE SYSTEM NEAR 16N52W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF
15. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 55W AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES...ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 58W S OF 18N.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THE WAVE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF WEST AFRICA ALONG
15W S OF 20N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N20W 9N30W 7N40W 6N47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO
12N BETWEEN 30W AND 42W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS EAST OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT COVERS THE REGION NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A FEW AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ROAM THE PREMISES S OF 26N. MARINE
OBS COMBINED WITH SATELLITE LOW LEVEL DERIVED WINDS SHOW
NORTHERLY FLOW 5 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE AREA. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SUPPORTING A RATHER DEBILITATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 23N
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS N OF 23N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLC ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM CAYO MEDIA
LUNA IN CUBA NEAR 20N78W TO NEAR 14N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 74W AND
82W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
ALONG 66W S OF 18N. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SIMILAR CONVECTION
TO THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 69W. CONSIDERABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS NOTED IN THIS REGION FROM TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CONVECTION IN THIS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FLOURISHING OVER THE FAR NE BASIN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORKWEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN US SEABOARD
SUPPORTING A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT THAT ENTERS THE
WESTERN REGION NEAR 32N74W AND CONTINUES S ALONG 27N74W TO
22N77W. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COVERS A
BROAD AREA EAST OF THE ANALYZED SURFACE FEATURE N OF 20N BETWEEN
64W AND THE SFC FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SPREADS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W
AND 64W. PART OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE DISCUSSED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. NO
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS OCCURRING ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA OF
DISCUSSION...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 1026 MB
HIGH NEAR 35N48W...AND 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
34N22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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