[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010532
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE DEC 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
8N13W WESTWARD ALONG 6N20W 6N30W 10N40W 11N50W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
18W-41W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 47W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 30N83W CONTINUING SW ALONG
25N87W TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. THIS FRONT IS
MOVING EASTWARD RATHER QUICKLY BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURE IN ITS WAY...AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF FRONT. NW WINDS UP TO GALE
FORCE ARE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE E OF FRONT 10-15 KT SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE NOTED WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE IS OVER THE NW GULF SUPPORTING THE
FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID-UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 12N. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE ARE LEAVING THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...A BROAD AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE COVERS THE FAR
SW CARIBBEAN AND IS ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR A 1008 MB LOW NEAR
10N80W. THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH PERSISTENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 76W INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OVER
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ALSO...15-25 KT TRADE WINDS COVER THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA TO
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NORTH
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS COVERING THE W ATLC W OF 65W. BROAD
UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION NEAR 32N35W EXTENDING ALONG
25N45W TO 20N57W DISSIPATING TO 20N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERS THE FAR NE ATLC ALONG 32N10W EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS ALONG 26N16W TO A DISSIPATING 1011 MB LOW NEAR 25N22W.
NEITHER THE FRONT OR THE LOW IS GENERATING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LOOK FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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