[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N13W 6N20W 6N30W 11N45W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 9N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 15W-23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 23W-30W...AND FROM
5N-12N BETWEEN 35W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 49W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED TO THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND IS POSITIONED FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALONG 30N86W 26N90W 21N94W 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN
ARE WITHIN 90 NM NW OF FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED BY BUOY 42055 OVER THE SW GULF. ELSEWHERE E OF FRONT
10-15 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED WITH FAIR WEATHER. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF W
OF 90W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MOVE E AND EXTEND FROM S
FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HRS WITH PRECIPITATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA
...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 78W-84W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER VENEZUELA FROM
9N-11N BETWEEN 66W-72W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 60W-63W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 15-25 KT TRADE
WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS S
OF HISPANIOLA TO COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
S 13N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF
50W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N39W
25N50W 21N60W DISSIPATING TO 21N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N39W. ANOTHER LOW OF 1011 MB IS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N23W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THIS
LOW TO BEYOND THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N12W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THIS FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 65W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-65W. ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOR THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WHILE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NEAR/MRF





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