[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292325
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 10N33W 9N40W 10N61W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
LIBERIA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 7W-10W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 29W-39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 50W-62W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR
VERO BEACH FROM 28N80W TO 29N82W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 80W-82W. 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 86W-88W. A
COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS MOVING E. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG
88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT THE
FLORIDA FRONT TO DRIFT E OVER THE W ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE TEXAS COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION
...AND GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NW GULF NW OF FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1005 MB LOW IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF
PANAMA NEAR 11N78W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
N COLOMBIA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 74W-83W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 62W-69W. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 69W-74W.
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 15N. 15-25 KT
TRADE WINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS S OF HISPANIOLA TO COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
AND NORTHERN S AMERICA FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 60W-83W. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT W
WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE
SRN CARIBBEAN S OF 15N...AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 83W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N48W AND EXTENDS
SW ALONG 27N55W 25N60W 25N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO
28N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. A 1002
MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N20W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS FROM 25N-32N
BETWEEN 10W-22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 40W-50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N
OF 20N E OF 40W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW. ZONAL
FLOW IS S OF 20N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOR THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WHILE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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