[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON NOV 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N27W 8N47W 10N62W INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ALONG
11N69W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N78W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF 5N FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN
TO 17W...FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 30W-40W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
53W-61W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES MOVING
TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE FAR NW GULF WATERS
FROM NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT OVER E TEXAS TO THE N GULF COAST
NEAR THE LOUISIANA BORDER. A JET STREAM IS INLAND OVER THE SE
U.S. FROM ACROSS N MEXICO AND TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND COVERS THE N GULF WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 95 KT N OF LINE
FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ALONG 28N90W TO NE FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
FROM WEST PALM BEACH TO TAMPA INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 29N85W.A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE GULF E OF 85W WITH
RETURN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. THIS SURFACE FLOW COUPLED WITH
THE APPROACHING COLD/WARM FRONTS ARE GIVING THE N GULF ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 29N FROM FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA AND N OF 27N TO
INLAND OVER TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY
STABLE AIR S OF THE JET STREAM WINDS LEAVING THE S GULF UNDER
FAIR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND EXITING THE GULF
WED NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER RIDE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 11N67W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH
PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND COUPLED THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE
FROM 11N61W IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 13N70W TO 14N81W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA. THE N CARIBBEAN IS
DOMINATED BY STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT N AND W
OF LINE FROM SAINT VINCENT IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 17N70W
17N80W TO HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W LEAVING THE AREA WITH FAIR
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
24N W OF 45W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC NEAR 32N51W EXTENDING ALONG 27N59W TO 26N69W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N78W THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR WEST PALM
BEACH. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 20N W OF 50W AND IS
BRIDGING THE THE ABOVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A LARGE UPPER LOW/
TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 35W WITH THE UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N29W SUPPORTING A COMPLEX SURFACE SYSTEM WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N17W TO A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED
NEAR 31N24W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 26N25W 21N34W
TO 21N42W. A SECOND STRONGER SURFACE 998 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
26N29W WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING W ALONG 2633W TO
27N38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
N OF 22N E OF 28W TO THE COAST OF NW AFRICA INCLUDING THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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