[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271125
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 06N30W 08N47W 06N56W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-05N BETWEEN 25W-31W...
AND FROM 07N-12N BETWEEN 34W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-14N BETWEEN 46W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE SE CONUS TO THE NW
GULF WATERS NEAR 28N94W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT
27/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION THEN SW ALONG 28N83W 23N92W THEN SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
MEXICO COAST NEAR 18N93W. THE FRONT LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN RANGE OF THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT
ARE OBSERVED WEST OF THE FRONT AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
SURFACE TROUGHING IS PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING S OF 26N E OF 86W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 07N54W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LOCATED WITHIN 300 NM SOUTH OF THIS AXIS AND THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N. A PORTION OF THE
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING
FOCUS FOR CONVERGENT NE TRADES AND GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS S OF 14N BETWEEN 77W-84W. FARTHER EAST...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER
COASTAL VENEZUELA...THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND SE CARIBBEAN S OF
16N E OF 70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N76W TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA AND
REMAINS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE SE CONUS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG
62W...AND THE ASSOCIATED 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED NEAR 28N62W. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WHICH COVERS THE AREA N
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PROVIDING FOR
OVERALL STABLE AND RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...
HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 68W-74W.
FARTHER EAST...AN EASTERN ATLC UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
34N36W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N31W THEN EXTENDS SW ALONG 30N31W 21N40W BECOMING MORE
DIFFUSE TO 19N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED
WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED
BY A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 21N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net