[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 07N30W 09N51W 08N60W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 23W-29W...
AND FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 33W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 47W-57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS STRETCHED FROM THE SE
CONUS TO EASTERN TEXAS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 27/0300 UTC
EXTENDS INTO THE GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION THEN SW
ALONG 29N84W 24N92W THEN SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN MEXICO COAST NEAR
COATZACOALCOS. THE FRONT LACKS ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 75
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
RANGE OF THE FRONT...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO 30 KT ARE
OBSERVED WEST OF THE FRONT AND ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH BY LATE SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF EAST OF THE COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK
TROUGHING IS PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF AND
FLORIDA STRAITS S OF 26N E OF 87W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATES OVER THE ENTIRE
CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 07N52W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W. MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS LOCATED WITHIN 300 NM SOUTH OF THIS AXIS AND THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 16N. A SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 08N75W TO 12N83W IS
PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL FOCUS OF CONVERGENT NE TRADES AND GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 13N BETWEEN 77W-85W. FARTHER
EAST...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO
OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND
SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 69W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WHILE A COLD FRONT LIES ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COASTLINE
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE SE CONUS...MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 65W...AND
ASSOCIATED 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N64W.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH COVERS THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W TO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE AND RATHER
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. SW WINDS EAST OF THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY
REMAIN N OF 30N BETWEEN 70W-82W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FARTHER
EAST...AN EASTERN ATLC UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 33N36W
AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N33W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 30N33W 22N45W BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE
TO 19N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 150 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 22N26W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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