[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 9N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 5N-8N.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 26W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS
CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE
NORTH. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 11N MOVING NW 20-25 KT. WAVE
REMAINS WELL DEFINED AS A CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAINLY BETWEEN
8N-11N AND ALSO REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION/SHOWERS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 12N MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE
REMAINS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS ALSO NOTED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N20W 5N33W 5N45W 7N59W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ FROM 14W-19W AND FROM 9N-12N E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER W
AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN
150/180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 44W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N89W
WHILE THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK 1013 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N87W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA THEN N OF LAKE CHARLES AND OVER E TEXAS TO N
OF HOUSTON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND TEXAS COAST. BROKEN/OVERCAST HIGH
DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF COMPLIMENTS OF THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA WHICH THE LAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
WRITTEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH OVER THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA
COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE N CARIBBEAN NEAR THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM S OF HAITI NEAR 17N72W ALONG 13N76W TO THE SW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 11N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM THE MONA
PASSAGE ALONG 13N74W TO 11N80W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE E CARIBBEAN TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF AGATHA OVER GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER BELIZE AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY S OF 20N W
OF 85W. THESE RAINS COULD COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS
KEEPING THE MOST OF THE W ATLC W OF 62W UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE E FLORIDA COAST
FROM 25N-28N. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N43W ALONG 28N53W TO A WEAKENING 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR
29N59W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N63W TO INLAND
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED VALUES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC SE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER ENHANCED BY
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH
WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 23N55W TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N61W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 24N18W
SW INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 8N39W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM A 1030 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND THE AZORES
THROUGH 32N27W TO 15N50W KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THERE THIS MORNING.
THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AFRICA DUST SPREADING W
TO NEAR 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE






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