[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300551
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAY 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 11N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS S OF 8N AS IT
LIES ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 24W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS
CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE
NORTH. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 10N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS
WELL DEFINED AS A CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAINLY BETWEEN 6N-11N AND
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 52W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W S OF 12N MOVING NW NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AT THE TRAILING EDGE OF
A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS ALSO NOTED.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 8N21W 5N32W 5N43W 7N51W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE
FROM 7N16W TO INLAND OVER GUINEA AFRICA NEAR 10N13W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA 11W-13W AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 32N90W
SUPPORTING A SERIES OF 1008 MB SURFACE LOWS CENTERED OVER
MISSISSIPPI AND NW ARKANSAS. THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK 1010 MB QUASI-STATIONARY
HIGH IS OVER THE W GULF NEAR 25N93W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO NEAR CRESTVIEW WITH A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM MOBILE BAY ALABAMA W TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA
S OF NEW ORLEANS THEN N OF LAKE CHARLES AND OVER E TEXAS TO N OF
AUSTIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 28N
BETWEEN 85W-93W AND IN THE E GULF WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS OF
27N86W. BROKEN DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE S GULF
COMPLIMENTS OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA THAT
MADE LANDFALL SAT NIGHT ON THE S COAST OF MEXICO/GUATEMALA. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N87W TO INLAND OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NEAR 18N89W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN AND HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
ASSOCIATED WITH AGATHA OVER GUATEMALA/BELIZE AND S MEXICO. THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER HIGH OVER TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL
ATLC DIPS S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N CARIBBEAN N OF 17N E OF
80W AND AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SW CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N61W. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N71W ALONG 13N75W TO OFF THE COAST
OF COSTA RICA NEAR 11N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF
13N. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
ELEVATED VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND IS FURTHER
ENHANCED BY THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BRINGING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 68W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO. HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH AGATHA OVER GUATEMALA/BELIZE AND
S MEXICO...COVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS MAINLY
S OF 18N W OF 87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA FROM 15N-20N W OF 80W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT IS
KEEPING THE MOST OF THE FAR W ATLC W OF 65W UNDER FAIR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE FLORIDA
COAST FROM 25N-30N. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL
ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N43W TO A WEAK 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N58W AND A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING SW ALONG 22N62W ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA
TO INLAND OVER CUBA TO NEAR SANTA CLARA. THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ELEVATED VALUES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC SE OF THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH FURTHER ENHANCED BY
THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 23N54W TO OVER THE LEEWARD/
VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N62W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR JUST SE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS
EXTENDING SW INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 7N40W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH BETWEEN THE MADEIRA ISLANDS AND
THE AZORES THROUGH 32N27W TO 19N52W KEEPING SKIES CLEAR THERE
TONIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE




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