[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS
SUPPRESSED AND MAINLY EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ DUE TO A LARGE AREA
OF SAHARAN AIR THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
18W-22W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 6N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS
WAVE IS ALSO SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE AREA OF SAHARAN AIR TO THE
NORTH. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS 3N-6N
BETWEEN 28W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 6N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE
LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN
28W-51W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W S OF 11N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 59W-63W...AND FROM 6N-12N
BETWEEN 57W-62W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W ALONG 5N20W 4N30W
4N40W 5N50W 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 8W-12W...FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 14W-18W.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 22W-27W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
31W-35W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WRN GULF AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH OFF
THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N96W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS
THE NE GULF COASTLINE FROM 28N84W TO 29N91W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS. LIGHT WINDS
ARE ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL W-NW FLOW COVERS THE
AREA AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W ATLC. EXPECT
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN TODAY ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TURKS AND CAICOS ACROSS ERN CUBA
NEAR 20N75W TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER NEAR 14N87W.
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH ALONG WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ARE ENHANCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 71W-75W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
HAITI...AS WELL AS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 75W-78W ACROSS JAMAICA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
76W-81W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS ELSEWHERE. FARTHER E...ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...WITH AN AREA OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 61W-66W
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS MOST
LIKELY CAUSED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THE BASE OF A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE W ATLC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED N OF ERN SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO COVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N66W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTING IT HAS BROADENED AND EXTENDS FROM 30N75W TO ERN CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN E OF THE SURFACE CENTER N
OF 30N BETWEEN 54W-66W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTER ALONG 27N71W TO 28N77W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS ERN CUBA TO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ALONG 20N75W TO 23N71W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 68W-72W. A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N56W TO N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN
54W-64W...AND FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 53W-59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN 40W-68W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 32N24W KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS THE ERN ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N25W TO 8N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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