[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN
IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS PART
OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS PART
OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE
ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS WAVE EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH
WESTERN SURINAME. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
SOUTHERN GUYANA. IT IS NOT KNOWN IF THIS PRECIPITATION REALLY
IS RELATED TO THE 57W TROPICAL WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ALONG 76W/77W TO THE
SOUTH OF 13N INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT.
IT LOOKS LIKE NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES
THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 5N27W TO 4N41W...TO FRENCH
GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 130 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 7N12W AT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...TO 5N24W 4N30W
4N40W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RESULTING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER.
THIS CYCLONIC FLOW NOW IS SOMEWHAT IN PHASE WITH THE BROAD
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 5 DAYS.
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEEN RELATED TO A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS REMAINED ALONG 30N/31N BETWEEN
70W AND 78W FOR THE LAST 5 DAYS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF 89W IS WEAK. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
TO THE WEST OF 89W MOVES AROUND A NORTHWESTERN CORNER 1014 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE PART OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
BETWEEN 80W AND 105W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
23N...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TOWARD HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE
TROUGH RUNS FROM WESTERN HONDURAS 19N85W...20N80W...ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO SOUTHERN JAMAICA TO 16N82W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W TO THE SOUTH OF
13N INTO WESTERN COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. IT IS NOT
EASY TO FIND ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED ONLY
TO THIS WAVE.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH COVERS
THE AREAS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N AND THE BAHAMAS
NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF 60W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PART OF
THE TROUGH THAT WAS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA
DURING THE LAST 5 DAYS HAS DISSIPATED. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 30N70W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1004 MB
LOW CENTER TO 28N73W AND 27N79W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 64W AND
68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 67W
AND 80W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 31N54W 27N60W TO 23N73W IN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 28N28W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO
18N33W TO 15N35W AND 8N44W. NO PRECIPITATION IS DISCERNIBLE WITH
THIS TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO
THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. THIS FLOW MOVES AROUND
A RIDGE THAT GOES FROM A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 32N25W TO 24N37W TO 20N47W TO 15N57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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