[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI MAY 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W TO THE SOUTH OF
9N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE
ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE
ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS WAVE IS NOT EASY TO DISCERN IN
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF THE STRONG SHOWERS
THAT ARE IN TWO CLUSTERS FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W ARE
OR ARE NOT ACCOMPANYING THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. THIS WAVE EVENTUALLY PASSES THROUGH
SURINAME. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CLUSTERS ARE
IN BRAZIL FROM 1S TO 2N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ALONG 75W TO THE SOUTH OF
13N INTO COLOMBIA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED ONLY TO THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 5N26W TO 4N40W...TO FRENCH
GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N12W
AT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE...TO 4N27W 5N41W 8N52W 11N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RESULTING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA...FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER.
THIS CYCLONIC FLOW NOW IS SOMEWHAT IN PHASE WITH THE BROAD
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 5 DAYS.
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLONIC FLOW HAS BEEN RELATED TO A SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS REMAINED ALONG 30N/31N BETWEEN
70W AND 78W FOR THE LAST 5 DAYS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN
ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF 89W IS WEAK. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
TO THE WEST OF 89W MOVES AROUND A NORTHWESTERN CORNER 1014 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE PART OF THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
BETWEEN 80W AND 105W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF
23N...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
32N74W 13N73W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. A SURFACE TROUGH
GOES FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO 18N82W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W.
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG ALONG 69W/68W TO
THE SOUTH OF 13N INTO VENEZUELA AND THE VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA
BORDER...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 69W AND 71W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD TROUGH COVERS
THE AREAS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W...
ON TOP OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 20N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PART OF
THE TROUGH THAT WAS EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA
DURING THE LAST 5 DAYS HAS DISSIPATED. A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 30N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 1005 MB
LOW CENTER TO 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 25N. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SURROUND THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 77W.
OTHER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N60W 23N70W
22N75W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N74W...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
13N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM A 1004 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N75W...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 27N78W...TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W...AND JUST TO THE
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A 27N29W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 20N32W TO 15N35W AND 9N47W. NO PRECIPITATION IS
DISCERNIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. THIS
FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
30N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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