[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. LARGELY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...WEAK LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED
NEAR THE WAVE AXIS IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN
23W-28W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 7N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. MOVING
BENEATH AN AREA OF CONVERGENT SURFACE FLOW AND COINCIDING WITH A
BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...SCATTERED MODERATE
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 8N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AS IT COINCIDES WITH AN AREA AREA OF
MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 10N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
S OF 10N...W OF 50W AND INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 9N BETWEEN 49W-58W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT.
HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO STALL OVER COLOMBIA AS ENERGY
AND MOISTURE FRACTURES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. ALSO SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE SE PACIFIC
IS CONTINUING TO DAMPEN OUT THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 70W-76W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N32W 5N45W 6N54W 8N72W.
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-42W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200
NM NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 46W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND CLEAR UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE
RIDGING COVERS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED
OFF THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM SE TEXAS NEAR 29N95W TO 27N90W WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE
SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS REACHING
10 KT IN THE GULF THIS EVENING. ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN CHANNEL IS EXPERIENCING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC THAT DIPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
CUBA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE N-NE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY
E OF 78W...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WITHIN 200 NM OF A LINE
FROM ANGUILLA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N74W...COINCIDING WITH
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH
ALSO EXTENDS FROM ERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W TO HONDURAS NEAR 14N88W
LARGELY AS A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...
PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA. AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC NEAR 14N92W
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ENHANCEMENT FOR THE CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1004 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N73W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTING IT EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING E OF THE LOW FROM 30N-33N
BETWEEN 68W-71W. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTER ALONG 27N73W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N81W. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHICH IN TURN IS ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE NE INTO
THE CENTRAL ATLC ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. A PAIR OF
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC. A LEADING
SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 32N47W TO 25N52W WHILE ANOTHER IS FROM
31N56W TO 21N61W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF 17N
BETWEEN 45W-67W. THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC
STEMS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 12N58W NE TO 32N45W. FARTHER EAST...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY
A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N25W KEEPING OVERALL FAIR
CONDITIONS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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