[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262350
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W FROM 4N-8N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE
IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS DIMINISHED.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W FROM 3N-7N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE LIES WITHIN A MAXIMUM OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W FROM 3N-9N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A BROAD AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
BETWEEN 40W-50W AS SEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W FROM 3N-13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 11N60W. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS FRACTURING ENERGY
AND ADVECTING MOISTURE N-NE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND INTO
THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN VENEZUELA AND NW VENEZUELA FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 68W-74W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 5N32W 6N47W 6N57W TO
EASTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 9N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 24W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS VERY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING DUE TO
UPPER LEVEL W-NW FLOW AND DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. THIS
AREA OF W-NW FLOW IS LOCATED WEST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE W ATLC ACROSS EASTERN
CUBA AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE...
RIDGING CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING FOR
CLEAR AND FAIR SKIES THIS EVENING WHICH ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER N OF 16N
W OF 81W INFLUENCED BY DRY NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE WESTERN EXTENT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO
EASTERN CUBA AND INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 81W AS A RESULT AND IS GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 75W-80W.
WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N83W
TO FAR WESTERN GUATEMALA NEAR 15N92W. EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT N-NE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN 60W-75W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS LARGELY E OF 72W. HEAVY
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS
EVENING. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE W ATLC AND DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...
THUS PROVIDING FOR INCREASED MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1005 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N76W. THE SURFACE LOW IS ALMOST
CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN
76W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EXTENDS
FROM NEAR 27N76W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR
25N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO LOCATED N-NE
OF HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 58W-71W ASSOCIATED WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE
W ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 12N60W TO 30N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF
20N BETWEEN 46W-58W. FARTHER E...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N32W
PROVIDING FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS E OF 46W.
ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN E OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN



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