[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261738
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED MAY 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW
AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS EVIDENT IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-7N BETWEEN 18W-20W.


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 7N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE
LIES AHEAD OF A BULGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SEEN IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 40W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N65W TO 4N64W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS AND IS
CONFIRMED BY ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. THIS WAVE ALSO COINCIDES
WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 60W-67W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N73W TO 3N75W PREVIOUSLY MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. HOWEVER...THE WAVE IS BEGINNING TO STALL OVER
COLOMBIA AS ITS WWD PROPAGATION IS BEING STOPPED IN WLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE E PACIFIC S OF
MEXICO. SOME OF THE ENERGY OF THIS WAVE IS ALSO BEING SHEARED
TOWARDS THE NE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN HALF OF
THE CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 70W-72W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS W OF THE AXIS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 76W-79W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N10W ALONG 6N20W 5N30W
4N40W 5N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 34W-39W. SCATTERED MODERATE/EQ-7N BETWEEN
51W-55W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 56W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS MOSTLY DRY AND CLEAR TODAY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN AROUND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGING COVERS THE
AREA EXTENDING FROM A 1018 MB HIGH OVER TENNESSEE. HOWEVER...A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO 26N93W CREATES A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 88W-91W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO
NOTED TO THE E FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 85W-87W. BESIDES NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH...LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE
RIDGE REACHING 15 KT IN THE SWRN GULF. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE NRN FLORIDA KEYS TO NEAR
25N82W IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
INFLUENCED BY DRY AIR ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND W ATLC AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED IN THE W
ATLC THAT EXTENDS ALONG 79W INTO THE W/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN SWLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH
ARE ENHANCING SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
19N BETWEEN 74W-80W...AND S OF 14N W OF 81W OFF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM VENEZUELA TO N OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 69W-72W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO S OF 16N BETWEEN 60W-67W. SOME OF
THESE AREAS OF ACTIVITY ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR TROPICAL WAVES THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS NRN SOUTH
AMERICA. SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN DUE TO
THESE SYSTEMS. IN FACT...TRINIDAD REPORTED 6.68 INCHES OF RAIN
OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. EXPECT LARGE AREAS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1005 MB
SURFACE LOW E OF GEORGIA NEAR 31N77W. THE SURFACE LOW IS ALMOST
COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W-81W. A
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM EXTENDS FROM NEAR
28N74W ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO THE NRN FLORIDA KEYS NEAR
25N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO N OF
HISPANIOLA S OF 27N BETWEEN 61W-71W ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND AN
UPPER LEVEL EXTENDING FROM NRN SOUTH AMERICA ALONG 60W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF 22N BETWEEN 44W-59W. FARTHER E...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
LOCATED NEAR 28N31W KEEPING CONDITIONS FAIR ACROSS ERN ATLC.
ALOFT...MAINLY ZONAL WLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN E OF 45W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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