[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231729
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN MAY 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N69W THROUGH A WEAKENING 1008 MB
LOW NEAR 25N70W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W. SATELLITE
SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND LOW IS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE
CURRENT LOW AND WILL BE ADDED AT 23/1800 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N AND E OF THE LOW WITHIN 120/150 NM
OF LINE FROM 22N58W TO 29N69W AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 21N67W
TO 23N65W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FOUND FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
64W-70W. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N AND BE N OF THE
REGION BY LATE TUE NIGHT THEN WILL DRIFT E THROUGH THU.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 9N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 9N39W TO TO 3N41W MOVING NW NEAR
10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN SLIGHT AREA OF MOISTURE
MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN
38W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 9N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS MOVING OVER SOUTH AMERICA. NO
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 6N19W 5N26W 4N34W 6N42W 4N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
ITCZ FROM 11W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 125 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA N OF 1N E OF
54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 24W-36W AND WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 42W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM S
MEXICO ALONG 97W TO INLAND OVER E TEXAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE E GULF E OF 89W AND EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC. DRY
STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ARE KEEPING THE GULF
MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. RETURN FLOW AROUND A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH
LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA AND IS DRAWING
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SW GULF GENERATING SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 22N94W TO 26N95W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW FLOW DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC
DIPPING S OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN N OF 27N W OF THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE BRINGING DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO
THAT AREA INCLUDING CUBA AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N TO INLAND OVER W PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA W OF 80W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND S OF 11N TO
INLAND OVER E PANAMA E OF 80W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR
14N83W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N72W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
COVERING THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC W OF 65W AND
DIPPING S INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AND LOW IN THE W ATLC. THE W ATLC
W OF THE LOW/TROUGH IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE W OF THE SPECIAL FEATURES ALONG 54W
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/TROUGH. BROAD
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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