[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231045
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN MAY 23 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 23/0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N68W TO AN
EMBEDDED 1007 MB LOW AT 25N70W TO HISPANIOLA AT 20N71W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM
25N-29N BETWEEN 66W-69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO  CONTINUE TO DEEPEN OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE A GALE IN A FEW HOURS AT
1200 UTC. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ESPECIALLY TIGHT N OF THE LOW
CENTER AND CONVECTION IS NOT IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE CENTER THUS
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY TROPICAL IN NATURE. THE
AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DRIFT N FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS
THEN DRIFT NW. IN ADDITION...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PRESENTLY CENTERED NEARBY AT 26N68W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER CENTER TO 55W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W FROM 3N-10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W FROM 1N-10N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 38W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W FROM 2N-11N MOVING WEST AT 12 KT.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER SURINAME FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 54W-57W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE
AXIS.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 4N30W 4N40W TO N BRAZIL AT
2N50W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN
14W-17W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 24W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 35W-38W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 49W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 29N87W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. 5-10 KT
ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF. THE W GULF W OF
91W HAS PREDOMINATELY 15-20 KT FROM THE SE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT...
CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 79W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA
RICA TO HONDURAS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 84W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W.
IN ADDITION...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N CARIBBEAN N OF
18N E OF 78W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW WINDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. EXPECT...CONTINUED
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
W OF 70W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ARE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A 1033 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE NW ATLANTIC NEAR 42N58W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC NEAR 35N33W PRODUCING EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW FROM
20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 25N34W.
EXPECT...THE SPECIAL FEATURE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA






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